Germany is gearing up for a general election to the Bundestag on 23 February, as the far-right party AfD rises to second place in the polls. With the collapse of the previous “traffic-light” coalition, the country’s electoral system, which is highly proportional, provides insights into potential government formations post-election.
Given that no single party is likely to secure a majority in the Bundestag, discussions around possible coalitions are already underway. The major centre-left and centre-right parties have previously formed coalitions, with the Greens or FDP also being common coalition partners. The distribution of seats in the Bundestag is slightly larger than the overall vote share due to the 5% national vote threshold for party representation.
Current indications suggest that Scholz’s government heavily relies on the FDP for survival, making cooperation with the CDU/CSU imperative for any future coalition. Conversely, Friedrich Merz’s party stands to gain from new elections rather than supporting the current chancellor. As the election date approaches, the dynamics of German politics are set to undergo significant shifts with various potential coalition scenarios in play.
Attribution:
This article was summarized and republished from the original source.
Please check the original article here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2025/feb/20/german-election-2025-opinion-poll-tracker-bundestag-chancellor.